Excursionistasvs
Villa Dalmine
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 9/12/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Excursionistas 0-0 Villa Dalmine, with an exact score probability of 30%.
Prediction record
Final result
Excursionistas 3-0 Villa Dalmine
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:13 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.02 | 44.5% | 40.0% | -4.5 pts |
| Draw | 2.80 | 32.0% | 34.9% | 2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.81 | 23.5% | 25.1% | 1.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.9 pts
Projected Score
Excursionistas 0–0 Villa Dalmine
Exact score probability: 30%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.9%
Model confidence
40.0%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ExcursionistasWLWWW
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
Villa DalmineLDDWW
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 0.60/0.20
BTTS 0/5O2.5 0/5
ExcursionistasVilla Dalmine
50.0Attack34.3
72.5Defence83.3
63.7Form58.8
63.1Power60.8
0.72xG0.52