Excursionistasvs
Sportivo Italiano
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 10/24/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excursionistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Excursionistas 0-0 Sportivo Italiano, with an exact score probability of 26%.
Prediction record
Final result
Excursionistas 4-0 Sportivo Italiano
Original prediction
Excursionistas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 05:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.29 | 69.7% | 49.8% | -19.9 pts |
| Draw | 4.48 | 20.1% | 30.2% | 10.2 pts |
| Away | 8.81 | 10.2% | 20.0% | 9.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.29 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-19.9 pts
Projected Score
Excursionistas 0–0 Sportivo Italiano
Exact score probability: 26%
Predicted outcome
Excursionistas
Probability
49.8%
Model confidence
49.8%
Excursionistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 3 · avg 2.00/0.60
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40