Excursionistasvs
Real Pilar
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 9/25/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excursionistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Excursionistas 1-0 Real Pilar, with an exact score probability of 20%.
Prediction record
Final result
Excursionistas 3-0 Real Pilar
Original prediction
Excursionistas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 06:45 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.99 | 45.0% | 50.8% | 5.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.90 | 30.8% | 29.8% | -1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.69 | 24.2% | 19.4% | -4.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.99 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
5.8 pts
Projected Score
Excursionistas 1–0 Real Pilar
Exact score probability: 20%
Predicted outcome
Excursionistas
Probability
50.8%
Model confidence
50.8%
Excursionistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 6 · GA 4 · avg 1.20/0.80