Excursionistasvs
Ituzaingó
COMPLETEDArgentina · Primera B Metropolitana · 9/7/2026, 11:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excursionistas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Excursionistas 1-0 Ituzaingó, with an exact score probability of 21%.
Prediction record
Final result
Excursionistas 2-1 Ituzaingó
Original prediction
Excursionistas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:22 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.34 | 67.4% | 61.6% | -5.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.09 | 22.1% | 23.5% | 1.4 pts |
| Away | 8.63 | 10.5% | 14.8% | 4.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-5.8 pts
Projected Score
Excursionistas 1–0 Ituzaingó
Exact score probability: 21%
Predicted outcome
Excursionistas
Probability
61.6%
Model confidence
61.6%
Excursionistas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 8 · avg 1.80/1.60
GF 1 · GA 6 · avg 0.20/1.20