Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior 1-2 Utrecht
Original prediction
Excelsior
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:01 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.20 | 42.6% | 62.2% | 19.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.6% | 19.0% | -6.6 pts |
| Away | 2.95 | 31.8% | 18.8% | -13.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
19.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.3–09%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior
Probability
62.2%
Model confidence
62.2%
Excelsior has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ExcelsiorDWWLW
GF 12 · GA 5 · avg 2.40/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 5/5
UtrechtDLDLL
GF 9 · GA 18 · avg 1.80/3.60
BTTS 5/5O2.5 5/5
ExcelsiorUtrecht
80.0Attack46.7
66.7Defence0.0
66.7Form6.7
69.6Power20.9
3.37xG1.01