Excelsiorvs
Sparta Rotterdam
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Eredivisie · 8/29/2026, 2:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (10%), 2-1 (9%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam
Original prediction
Excelsior
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 00:57 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.35 | 39.8% | 43.3% | 3.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.3% | 25.4% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 34.9% | 31.4% | -3.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.35 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–110%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior
Probability
43.3%
Model confidence
43.3%
Excelsior has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 18 · GA 7 · avg 3.60/1.40
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20