Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (7%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior 1-5 Groningen
Original prediction
Excelsior
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:07 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.54 | 36.9% | 49.5% | 12.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.0% | 21.7% | -4.4 pts |
| Away | 2.52 | 37.1% | 28.9% | -8.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
12.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–17%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior
Probability
49.5%
Model confidence
49.5%
Excelsior has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ExcelsiorDLDWW
GF 10 · GA 7 · avg 2.00/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
GroningenWDDLL
GF 9 · GA 11 · avg 1.80/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
ExcelsiorGroningen
71.4Attack71.4
57.1Defence38.1
52.4Form52.4
59.5Power53.8
2.54xG1.63