Excelsior Virtonvs
Sporting Hasselt
COMPLETEDBelgium · Challenger Pro League · 10/10/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior Virton · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Excelsior Virton 1-0 Sporting Hasselt, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior Virton 3-4 Sporting Hasselt
Original prediction
Excelsior Virton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 17:59 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 36.5% | 48.0% | 11.5 pts |
| Draw | 3.54 | 25.7% | 26.5% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 2.41 | 37.8% | 25.5% | -12.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
11.5 pts
Projected Score
Excelsior Virton 1–0 Sporting Hasselt
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior Virton
Probability
48.0%
Model confidence
48.0%
Excelsior Virton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40
GF 5 · GA 8 · avg 1.00/1.60