Excelsior Virtonvs
KRC Genk II
COMPLETEDBelgium · Challenger Pro League · 9/12/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior Virton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior Virton 3-0 KRC Genk II
Original prediction
Excelsior Virton
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.07 | 43.8% | 44.5% | 0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.69 | 24.5% | 25.1% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 2.87 | 31.6% | 30.4% | -1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.07 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–07%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior Virton
Probability
44.5%
Model confidence
44.5%
Excelsior Virton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
GF 17 · GA 7 · avg 3.40/1.40