Excelsior Virtonvs
Genk
COMPLETEDBelgium · Cup · 10/17/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior Virton · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (9%), 3-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior Virton 0-2 Genk
Original prediction
Excelsior Virton
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 1 October 2026 at 14:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.59 | 16.3% | 38.9% | 22.6 pts |
| Draw | 4.18 | 21.8% | 24.8% | 3.0 pts |
| Away | 1.47 | 62.0% | 36.3% | -25.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
22.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–19%
- 3.3–17%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior Virton
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Excelsior Virton has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 6 · avg 2.00/1.20
GF 5 · GA 6 · avg 1.00/1.20