Excelsior Maassluisvs
TOGB
COMPLETEDNetherlands · Derde Divisie · 10/10/2026, 12:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Excelsior Maassluis · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (9%), 1-0 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Excelsior Maassluis 3-2 TOGB
Original prediction
Excelsior Maassluis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 October 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.3% | 41.4% | -7.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.91 | 23.2% | 26.9% | 3.7 pts |
| Away | 3.29 | 27.5% | 31.7% | 4.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–08%
Predicted outcome
Excelsior Maassluis
Probability
41.4%
Model confidence
41.4%
Excelsior Maassluis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 11 · GA 3 · avg 2.20/0.60
GF 8 · GA 15 · avg 1.60/3.00