Evesham Unitedvs
Taunton Town
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/17/2026, 2:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Taunton Town · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-2 (7%), 2-3 (6%), 3-2 (6%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Evesham United 1-4 Taunton Town
Original prediction
Taunton Town
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 October 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 35.6% | 37.8% | 2.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.48 | 26.0% | 20.0% | -6.1 pts |
| Away | 2.36 | 38.4% | 42.2% | 3.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.36 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
3.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–27%
- 2.2–36%
- 3.3–26%
Predicted outcome
Taunton Town
Probability
42.2%
Model confidence
42.2%
Taunton Town has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60