Evesham Unitedvs
Bath City
COMPLETEDEngland · Non League Premier - Southern South · 10/13/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Bath City · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Evesham United 0-2 Bath City
Original prediction
Bath City
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 29 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.00 | 22.6% | 28.9% | 6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.64 | 24.9% | 27.3% | 2.4 pts |
| Away | 1.73 | 52.5% | 43.8% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.73 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-8.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Bath City
Probability
43.8%
Model confidence
43.8%
Bath City has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80