Everton Wvs
Birmingham City W
COMPLETEDEngland · WSL Cup · 9/23/2026, 6:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Birmingham City W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (9%), 2-1 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Everton W 2-0 Birmingham City W
Original prediction
Birmingham City W
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 9 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.87 | 47.4% | 35.4% | -12.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.30 | 26.9% | 25.8% | -1.1 pts |
| Away | 3.46 | 25.6% | 38.8% | 13.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.2–17%
Predicted outcome
Birmingham City W
Probability
38.8%
Model confidence
38.8%
Birmingham City W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 2 · avg 0.60/0.40
GF 5 · GA 10 · avg 1.00/2.00