Everton Wvs
Birmingham City W
COMPLETEDEngland · FA WSL · 10/4/2026, 1:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Everton W · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Everton W 2-1 Birmingham City W
Original prediction
Everton W
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 06:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 49.8% | 49.2% | -0.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.62 | 25.1% | 25.2% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 25.0% | 25.6% | 0.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.83 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.2–09%
Predicted outcome
Everton W
Probability
49.2%
Model confidence
49.2%
Everton W has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 4 · GA 3 · avg 0.80/0.60
GF 8 · GA 13 · avg 1.60/2.60