Copa ChileCopa Chile
Saturday, 20 June 2026Last updated 10:10
Everton de Vina

Everton de Vina

Home
DL
22
Full time
San Luis

San Luis

Away
D
Estadio Sausalito
GoalVio prediction
Too close to call
No clear favourite

The model sees this as an open match — all three outcomes are within a tight range.

Everton de Vina37%
San Luis37%
Draw26%
Most likely exact score1-0
Prediction missed— Result: Draw
Win probability
Everton de Vina
37%
Draw
26%
San Luis
37%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Everton de Vina
54
San Luis
73
Defence
Everton de Vina
27
San Luis
27
Momentum
Everton de Vina
17
San Luis
33
Danger (xG)
Everton de Vina
1.35
San Luis
1.80
Both teams to score
No

The model projects 1.99 xG for Everton de Vina and 1.43 xG for San Luis — strong and meaningful attacking threat respectively. Both sides are generating enough chance quality to make scoring a realistic expectation, which is the primary driver of the BTTS projection.The projected 2-1 scoreline reflects both teams contributing to the goal tally. Even with San Luis holding the stronger xG profile, the opposition's strong attacking output is sufficient to keep BTTS in play.The attack-versus-defence matchup supports both teams scoring. Everton de Vina's Attack Score (54) exceeds San Luis's Defensive Stability (27), and San Luis's attack (73) similarly tests Everton de Vina's defence (27). Neither backline is dominant enough to prevent the other side from scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
No

The model projects a combined xG of 3.42 — elevated attacking volume for this fixture. A combined xG above 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is likely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture clears that threshold.The projected 2-1 scoreline clears the 2.5-goal threshold — 3 goals in the most likely outcome. With both sides generating elevated xG, multiple scoreline combinations in the probability grid exceed 2.5 goals.The attack-versus-defence matchups across both ends of the pitch favour the attackers. Everton de Vina's Attack Score (54) vs San Luis's Defensive Stability (27) and San Luis's attack (73) vs Everton de Vina's defence (27) both point to a goal-friendly environment — neither defence is strong enough to suppress the other side's attacking output.

xG for (Everton de Vina)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (San Luis)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Everton de Vina)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (San Luis)
1.80
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Everton de VinaEverton de Vina
DLWLD
San LuisSan Luis
DLD

Probability breakdown

37% confidence
Everton de Vina37%
Draw26%
San Luis37%

Everton de Vina leads with 37% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Everton de Vina Backed to Win — Model Projects 1-0

Everton de Vina host San Luis in Copa Chile. Everton de Vina have recorded LWLDWD in recent matches while San Luis arrive with a run of WDLDWW.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 1.99 expected goals for Everton de Vina against 1.43 for San Luis — a clear advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Everton de Vina's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 56% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: ⚠️ Upset Risk San Luis have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form that keeps this fixture competitive. While Everton de Vina carry the stronger underlying metrics, San Luis's recent results mean the gap is narrower than the headline verdict implies.

Why GoalVio backs this

Everton de Vina are generating a clear xG advantage — 1.99 projected against 1.43 for San Luis. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 0.55 is the clearest signal in the model that Everton de Vina are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: San Luis have won 3 of their last 10 matches — a run of form the model acknowledges but cannot fully override. If San Luis carry that momentum into this fixture and score first, the upset probability rises significantly above what the headline verdict suggests.

Risk factors

  • San Luis are in decent form with 3 wins from their last 10 matches — an upset cannot be ruled out.
  • With both teams expected to score, the game could remain open until the final whistle — late goals are a real possibility.
  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.

Head to head

Everton de Vina 0Draws 20 San Luis
Avg goals: 4.0BTTS in 2/2
4 Jul 2026
Everton de Vina
D22
San Luis
20 Jun 2026
Everton de Vina
D22
San Luis

Recent form

Everton de Vina

Everton de Vina

D
@ San Luis
4 Jul 2026
22
L
@ U. Catolica
1 Jul 2026
12
W
vs Deportes Copiapo
27 Jun 2026
30
L
vs U. Catolica
24 Jun 2026
13
D
vs San Luis
20 Jun 2026
22
San Luis

San Luis

D
vs Everton de Vina
4 Jul 2026
22
L
@ U. Catolica
28 Jun 2026
24
D
@ Everton de Vina
20 Jun 2026
22

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Everton de Vina vs San Luis?

GoalVio's model predicts Everton de Vina to win with 37% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Everton de Vina vs San Luis?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs San Luis?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton de Vina vs San Luis?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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