Copa ChileCopa Chile
Friday, 26 June 2026Last updated 12:39
Everton de Vina

Everton de Vina

Home
DL
30
Full time
Deportes Copiapo

Deportes Copiapo

Away
LL
Estadio Sausalito
GoalVio prediction
56% confidence
Everton de Vina(56%)
Most likely exact score2-1
Prediction correct— Result: Everton de Vina
Win probability
Everton de Vina
56%
Draw
21%
Deportes Copiapo
23%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Everton de Vina
54
Deportes Copiapo
9
Defence
Everton de Vina
27
Deportes Copiapo
6
Momentum
Everton de Vina
17
Deportes Copiapo
0
Danger (xG)
Everton de Vina
1.35
Deportes Copiapo
0.00
Both teams to score
Yes

The model projects 2.07 xG for Everton de Vina and 0.95 xG for Deportes Copiapo. Deportes Copiapo's projected xG of 0.95 is not sufficient to make scoring a reliable expectation — the model does not see them generating enough high-quality chances to break through.The projected 2-0 scoreline features a clean sheet for one side. The xG distribution suggests Everton de Vina will score, but Deportes Copiapo's attacking output falls below the threshold the model requires to project both teams scoring.Everton de Vina's Defensive Stability Score (27) comfortably exceeds the opposition's Attack Score (9). That structural defensive advantage is the clearest reason the model does not project both teams scoring.

Over 2.5 goals
Yes

The model projects a combined xG of 3.03 — elevated attacking volume. A combined xG below 2.5 is the model's primary signal that the match is unlikely to produce more than two goals, and this fixture falls below that threshold.The projected 2-0 scoreline stays under the 2.5-goal mark. The probability grid is dominated by scorelines of two goals or fewer, with the over 2.5 market requiring a result that sits outside the model's most likely outcomes.

xG for (Everton de Vina)
1.35
avg per match
xG for (Deportes Copiapo)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Everton de Vina)
1.80
avg per match
xG against (Deportes Copiapo)
2.70
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
Everton de VinaEverton de Vina
DLWLD
Deportes CopiapoDeportes Copiapo
LLL

Probability breakdown

56% confidence
Everton de Vina56%
Draw21%
Deportes Copiapo23%

Everton de Vina leads with 56% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Everton de Vina Backed to Win — Model Projects 2-1

Everton de Vina host Deportes Copiapo in Copa Chile. Everton de Vina have recorded LWLDWD in recent matches while Deportes Copiapo arrive with a run of WLLLLD. These sides have met 6 times recently, averaging 3.0 goals per game.

Key factors

: 🎯 xG Advantage The Goalvio xG model projects 2.07 expected goals for Everton de Vina against 0.95 for Deportes Copiapo — a significant advantage that translates into a higher win probability. xG is the model's most reliable predictor of match outcomes.
: 🏟️ Home Advantage Goalvio applies an 8% xG boost for home teams based on empirical data showing home sides score 10–15% more goals at their own ground. Everton de Vina's Elo-adjusted home strength gives them a 62% expected score in this fixture — a factor that tips the balance when the underlying numbers are close.
: 🔄 Head-to-Head Record Everton de Vina have won 5 of the last 6 meetings between these sides — a historically dominant record that the model treats as a meaningful signal when the underlying stats are otherwise close.

Why GoalVio backs this

Everton de Vina are generating a commanding xG advantage — 2.07 projected against 0.95 for Deportes Copiapo. xG measures the quality of chances created, not just shots. A gap of 1.12 is the clearest signal in the model that Everton de Vina are the materially more dangerous side in this fixture.

Biggest risk: Everton de Vina's projection depends on converting chances into goals. If Deportes Copiapo defend deep, absorb pressure, and hit on the counter, the match could end differently than the model projects — particularly if Everton de Vina fail to score in the first half.

Risk factors

  • Live conditions — weather, team news, and in-game momentum — can always override statistical projections.
  • The Poisson model works on averages — individual moments of quality can decide matches that data suggests should be close.

Head to head

Everton de Vina 1Draws 00 Deportes Copiapo
Avg goals: 3.0
27 Jun 2026
Everton de Vina
W30
Deportes Copiapo

Recent form

Everton de Vina

Everton de Vina

D
@ San Luis
4 Jul 2026
22
L
@ U. Catolica
1 Jul 2026
12
W
vs Deportes Copiapo
27 Jun 2026
30
L
vs U. Catolica
24 Jun 2026
13
D
vs San Luis
20 Jun 2026
22
Deportes Copiapo

Deportes Copiapo

L
@ Everton de Vina
27 Jun 2026
03
L
vs U. Catolica
20 Jun 2026
03
L
@ Cobreloa
16 May 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?

GoalVio's model predicts Everton de Vina to win with 56% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 2-1.

Will both teams score in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Everton de Vina vs Deportes Copiapo?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: Yes.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more