Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Zaragoza · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (13%), 0-1 (12%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Europa Fc 0-1 Zaragoza
Original prediction
Zaragoza
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 08:55 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.93 | 23.3% | 22.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.46 | 26.5% | 25.9% | -0.6 pts |
| Away | 1.82 | 50.3% | 51.5% | 1.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.82 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.2 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–213%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Zaragoza
Probability
51.5%
Model confidence
51.5%
Zaragoza has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Europa FcLWLWL
GF 5 · GA 9 · avg 1.00/1.80
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ZaragozaDDWWW
GF 11 · GA 5 · avg 2.20/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
Europa FcZaragoza
25.0Attack66.7
41.7Defence58.3
29.2Form70.8
35.3Power66.8
0.71xG2.08