Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Europa Fc · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Europa Fc 0-3 Real Jaén
Original prediction
Europa Fc
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 26 August 2026 at 01:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.36 | 38.5% | 39.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 29.2% | 29.3% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.81 | 32.3% | 31.5% | -0.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–011%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Europa Fc
Probability
39.3%
Model confidence
39.3%
Europa Fc has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Europa FcDLWLD
GF 8 · GA 11 · avg 1.60/2.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
Real JaénLDDWW
GF 7 · GA 6 · avg 1.40/1.20
BTTS 5/5O2.5 3/5
Europa FcReal Jaén
48.2Attack50.0
56.1Defence50.0
52.6Form50.0
54.0Power50.0
1.36xG1.03