Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Europa Fc · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (14%), 0-0 (13%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Europa Fc 1-2 Hércules
Original prediction
Europa Fc
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 30 August 2026 at 00:06 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.00 | 30.1% | 39.0% | 8.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.03 | 29.9% | 29.6% | -0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.26 | 40.0% | 31.4% | -8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
8.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–014%
- 3.0–013%
Predicted outcome
Europa Fc
Probability
39.0%
Model confidence
39.0%
Europa Fc has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Europa FcDLDLW
GF 4 · GA 9 · avg 0.80/1.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
HérculesLLLDD
GF 2 · GA 6 · avg 0.40/1.20
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
Europa FcHércules
0.0Attack0.0
100.0Defence33.3
33.3Form0.0
45.3Power15.3
1.29xG0.84