Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Algeciras · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Europa Fc 2-1 Algeciras
Original prediction
Algeciras
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 12 September 2026 at 06:24 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.50 | 36.1% | 31.8% | -4.3 pts |
| Draw | 2.99 | 30.3% | 29.8% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.69 | 33.6% | 38.4% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Algeciras
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Algeciras has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Europa FcLWLLD
GF 4 · GA 7 · avg 0.80/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
AlgecirasWWDLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
Europa FcAlgeciras
22.2Attack46.7
44.4Defence46.7
22.2Form46.7
33.0Power49.7
0.98xG1.35