Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Senegal · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (13%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Ethiopia 0-1 Senegal
Original prediction
Senegal
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 09:51 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.20-1.40| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 7.86 | 11.6% | 34.7% | 23.1 pts |
| Draw | 4.46 | 20.4% | 26.9% | 6.4 pts |
| Away | 1.34 | 68.0% | 38.4% | -29.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.34 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-29.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–013%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Senegal
Probability
38.4%
Model confidence
38.4%
Senegal has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EthiopiaLDWWW
GF 6 · GA 2 · avg 1.20/0.40
BTTS 1/5O2.5 1/5
SenegalDDLWW
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
EthiopiaSenegal
44.4Attack33.3
88.9Defence66.7
66.7Form33.3
66.7Power45.3
1.39xG0.90