Ethiopia Bunnavs
Negelle Arsi
COMPLETEDEthiopia · Premier League · 10/21/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: Ethiopia Bunna 0-0 Negelle Arsi, with an exact score probability of 29%.
Prediction record
Final result
Ethiopia Bunna 0-3 Negelle Arsi
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 22:47 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.55 | 35.3% | 35.3% | -0.1 pts |
| Draw | 2.60 | 34.6% | 34.8% | 0.2 pts |
| Away | 2.99 | 30.1% | 29.9% | -0.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
0.2 pts
Projected Score
Ethiopia Bunna 0–0 Negelle Arsi
Exact score probability: 29%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
34.8%
Model confidence
35.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Ethiopia BunnaWLLD
GF 2 · GA 3 · avg 0.50/0.75
BTTS 1/4O2.5 1/4
Negelle ArsiDD
GF 1 · GA 1 · avg 0.50/0.50
BTTS 1/2O2.5 0/2
Ethiopia BunnaNegelle Arsi
33.3Attack16.7
66.7Defence83.3
50.0Form33.3
53.0Power48.3
0.70xG0.57