Etar Veliko Tarnovovs
Fratria
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 10/9/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Fratria · BTTS No · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (12%), 1-1 (12%), 0-1 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2-0 Fratria
Original prediction
Fratria
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 21:11 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.85 | 31.5% | 21.4% | -10.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.38 | 26.6% | 23.2% | -3.3 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 41.9% | 55.4% | 13.4 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
13.4 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–212%
- 2.1–112%
- 3.0–111%
Predicted outcome
Fratria
Probability
55.4%
Model confidence
55.4%
Fratria has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 8 · GA 14 · avg 1.60/2.80
GF 11 · GA 4 · avg 2.20/0.80