Etar Veliko Tarnovovs
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
COMPLETEDBulgaria · Second League · 9/20/2026, 5:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Etar Veliko Tarnovo 2-4 Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Original prediction
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 7 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.0% | 31.6% | -16.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.51 | 25.5% | 25.9% | 0.4 pts |
| Away | 3.38 | 26.5% | 42.5% | 16.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 2.38 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
16.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas
Probability
42.5%
Model confidence
42.5%
Chernomorets 1919 Burgas has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 12 · avg 1.20/2.40
GF 9 · GA 3 · avg 1.80/0.60