Estudiantes de Merida FCvs
Caracas FC
COMPLETEDVenezuela · Copa Venezuela · 10/21/2026, 9:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Caracas FC · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estudiantes de Merida FC 1-1 Caracas FC
Original prediction
Caracas FC
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 17 October 2026 at 07:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 48.8% | 34.6% | -14.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.24 | 27.6% | 27.4% | -0.2 pts |
| Away | 3.79 | 23.6% | 38.0% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.24 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
14.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–28%
Predicted outcome
Caracas FC
Probability
38.0%
Model confidence
38.0%
Caracas FC has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 9 · avg 1.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20