Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Thursday, 23 July 2026Last updated 12:31
Estrela

Estrela

Home
W
20
Full time
Nacional

Nacional

Away
WL
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Nacional33%
Estrela33%
Draw33%
Most likely exact score1-1
Win probability
Estrela
33%
Draw
33%
Nacional
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Estrela
73
Nacional
34
Defence
Estrela
91
Nacional
66
Momentum
Estrela
100
Nacional
50
Danger (xG)
Estrela
1.80
Nacional
0.90
Both teams to score
Yes
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Estrela)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Nacional)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Estrela)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Nacional)
0.90
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
EstrelaEstrela
WDD
NacionalNacional
WL

Probability breakdown

33% confidence
Estrela33%
Draw33%
Nacional33%

Nacional leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Estrela head into this in Friendlies Clubs fixture in mixed form (W), while Nacional arrive in mixed form (WL). Estrela have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 50% for Nacional over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Estrela (91/100) and Nacional (66/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Estrela have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Nacional have found it tough away from home, failing to win any of their last 1 away matches. They average 0.0 goals scored and 2.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Estrela and Nacional in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects a draw with 33% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-1. Win probabilities: Estrela 3333%, Draw 3333%, Nacional 3334%. BTTS: Yes, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Estrela

Estrela

W
vs Naval 1893
15 Jul 2026
20
D
@ SC Braga
16 May 2026
11
D
vs Famalicao
11 May 2026
00
Nacional

Nacional

W
vs Guimaraes
16 May 2026
20
L
@ Santa Clara
11 May 2026
02

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Estrela vs Nacional?

GoalVio's model predicts a draw with 33% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Nacional?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-1.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Nacional?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: Yes — both teams are expected to score.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estrela vs Nacional?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more