Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs
Saturday, 18 July 202613:00Last updated 10:05
Estrela

Estrela

Home
W
12
Full time
Casa Pia

Casa Pia

Away
DW
GoalVio prediction
Friendly match
Very hard to predict

Friendly match — very hard to predict, not included in accuracy.

Casa Pia33%
Estrela33%
Draw33%
Most likely exact score1-0
Win probability
Estrela
33%
Draw
33%
Casa Pia
33%
Predicted winner is based on the highest win probability.
Intelligence snapshot
Attack
Estrela
73
Casa Pia
34
Defence
Estrela
91
Casa Pia
82
Momentum
Estrela
100
Casa Pia
67
Danger (xG)
Estrela
1.80
Casa Pia
0.90
Both teams to score
No
Over 2.5 goals
No
xG for (Estrela)
1.80
avg per match
xG for (Casa Pia)
0.90
avg per match
xG against (Estrela)
0.00
avg per match
xG against (Casa Pia)
0.45
avg per match

Momentum trend

last 5 matches
EstrelaEstrela
WDD
Casa PiaCasa Pia
DW

Probability breakdown

33% confidence
Estrela33%
Draw33%
Casa Pia33%

Casa Pia leads with 33% — the model's highest-probability outcome for this fixture.

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Analysis

Match insights

Estrela head into this in Friendlies Clubs fixture in mixed form (W), while Casa Pia arrive in mixed form (DW). Estrela have a 100% win rate across their last 1 matches, compared to 50% for Casa Pia over 2 games.

Both sides are defensively strong — Estrela (91/100) and Casa Pia (82/100) are both rated highly at the back. The model expects a tight, low-scoring affair with defences on top.

Estrela have won 1 of their last 2 home fixtures, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per game at home. Casa Pia have been excellent on the road, winning all 1 of their recent away fixtures and averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.0 conceded per away game.

There is no head-to-head data between Estrela and Casa Pia in the engine.

The GoalVio engine projects Estrela to win with 33% confidence. and a most likely scoreline of 1-0. Win probabilities: Estrela 3333%, Draw 3333%, Casa Pia 3334%. BTTS: No, Over 2.5: No.

Recent form

Estrela

Estrela

W
vs Naval 1893
15 Jul 2026
20
D
@ SC Braga
16 May 2026
11
D
vs Famalicao
11 May 2026
00
Casa Pia

Casa Pia

D
vs Rio Ave
16 May 2026
11
W
@ Guimaraes
11 May 2026
10

Frequently asked questions

Who will win Estrela vs Casa Pia?

GoalVio's model predicts Estrela to win with 33% confidence.

What is the predicted score for Estrela vs Casa Pia?

The most likely scoreline according to GoalVio's Skellam-DC model is 1-0.

Will both teams score in Estrela vs Casa Pia?

GoalVio's model predicts BTTS: No — at least one team is expected to keep a clean sheet.

Will there be over 2.5 goals in Estrela vs Casa Pia?

GoalVio's model predicts Over 2.5 Goals: No — fewer than 3 goals are expected.

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About this prediction
GoalVio Prediction Engine v5 — updated dailyPowered by Poisson, xG and momentum modelsAccuracy last 30 days: 54%Last model update:
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Responsible gambling: Predictions are generated by a statistical model for informational purposes only. Past accuracy does not guarantee future results. Learn more