Estrela U23vs
União Leiria U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/8/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
União Leiria U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (10%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estrela U23 2-0 União Leiria U23
Original prediction
União Leiria U23
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.40 | 37.5% | 31.2% | -6.3 pts |
| Draw | 3.18 | 28.3% | 27.9% | -0.5 pts |
| Away | 2.64 | 34.2% | 40.9% | 6.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
União Leiria U23
Probability
40.9%
Model confidence
40.9%
União Leiria U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 1 · GA 9 · avg 0.20/1.80
GF 9 · GA 2 · avg 1.80/0.40