Estrela U23vs
Sporting CP U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 9/1/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Sporting CP U23 · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (9%), 1-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estrela U23 1-2 Sporting CP U23
Original prediction
Sporting CP U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.84 | 23.5% | 29.7% | 6.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.43 | 26.3% | 27.7% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 1.80 | 50.1% | 42.6% | -7.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.80 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-7.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–19%
- 3.1–29%
Predicted outcome
Sporting CP U23
Probability
42.6%
Model confidence
42.6%
Sporting CP U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 0 · GA 8 · avg 0.00/1.60
GF 9 · GA 6 · avg 1.80/1.20