Estoril U23vs
Sporting CP U23
COMPLETEDPortugal · Liga Revelação U23 · 10/9/2026, 10:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estoril U23 · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 2-1 (8%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estoril U23 1-0 Sporting CP U23
Original prediction
Estoril U23
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 9 October 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.33 | 38.7% | 36.1% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.39 | 26.6% | 28.8% | 2.2 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 34.8% | 35.1% | 0.3 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.33 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.2–18%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Estoril U23
Probability
36.1%
Model confidence
36.1%
Estoril U23 has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 12 · GA 9 · avg 2.40/1.80
GF 12 · GA 6 · avg 2.40/1.20