Estoniavs
Luxembourg
COMPLETEDWorld · UEFA Nations League · 10/3/2026, 4:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estonia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 1-0 (12%), 0-0 (11%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estonia 1-0 Luxembourg
Original prediction
Estonia
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 3 September 2026 at 00:31 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.93 | 31.9% | 38.7% | 6.8 pts |
| Draw | 2.92 | 32.0% | 29.6% | -2.4 pts |
| Away | 2.59 | 36.1% | 31.7% | -4.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.93 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.1–012%
- 3.0–011%
Predicted outcome
Estonia
Probability
38.7%
Model confidence
38.7%
Estonia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 4 · avg 1.00/0.80
GF 6 · GA 5 · avg 1.20/1.00