Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Iceland · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (12%), 0-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estonia 0-0 Iceland
Original prediction
Iceland
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 18:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.53 | 17.0% | 26.9% | 9.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.95 | 23.7% | 27.6% | 3.9 pts |
| Away | 1.58 | 59.3% | 45.5% | -13.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.95 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-13.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–112%
- 3.0–012%
Predicted outcome
Iceland
Probability
45.5%
Model confidence
45.5%
Iceland has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EstoniaWDDWD
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 1/5
IcelandWWDLL
GF 7 · GA 5 · avg 1.40/1.00
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
EstoniaIceland
22.2Attack77.8
88.9Defence88.9
55.6Form77.8
59.1Power79.9
0.97xG1.28