Esteponavs
Don Benito
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/3/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estepona · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estepona 3-1 Don Benito
Original prediction
Estepona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 10 September 2026 at 17:27 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.92 | 46.6% | 36.9% | -9.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.11 | 28.8% | 29.5% | 0.6 pts |
| Away | 3.64 | 24.6% | 33.6% | 9.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.92 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–011%
- 3.0–110%
Predicted outcome
Estepona
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Estepona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 5 · GA 7 · avg 1.00/1.40
GF 6 · GA 3 · avg 1.20/0.60