Esteponavs
Ciudad de Lucena
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/24/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Ciudad de Lucena · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (14%), 0-1 (11%), 0-0 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estepona 2-2 Ciudad de Lucena
Original prediction
Ciudad de Lucena
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 7 October 2026 at 19:49 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 3.50+| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.86 | 48.1% | 34.0% | -14.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.17 | 28.2% | 26.9% | -1.3 pts |
| Away | 3.77 | 23.7% | 39.2% | 15.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.17 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
15.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–114%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–010%
Predicted outcome
Ciudad de Lucena
Probability
39.2%
Model confidence
39.2%
Ciudad de Lucena has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 9 · GA 5 · avg 1.80/1.00
GF 10 · GA 4 · avg 2.00/0.80