Esteponavs
Atlético Central
COMPLETEDSpain · Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 · 10/11/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Estepona · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estepona 3-2 Atlético Central
Original prediction
Estepona
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 18 September 2026 at 16:03 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.55 | 57.5% | 47.7% | -9.8 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.0% | 26.3% | 1.3 pts |
| Away | 5.11 | 17.5% | 26.0% | 8.6 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.55 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Estepona
Probability
47.7%
Model confidence
47.7%
Estepona has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
GF 6 · GA 8 · avg 1.20/1.60