Estac Troyesvs
Marseille
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 10/11/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Marseille · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-2 (9%), 0-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estac Troyes 0-2 Marseille
Original prediction
Marseille
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 11 September 2026 at 00:05 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.56 | 26.8% | 29.7% | 2.9 pts |
| Draw | 3.70 | 25.8% | 25.7% | -0.1 pts |
| Away | 2.01 | 47.4% | 44.6% | -2.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 1.01 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.8 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–29%
- 3.0–18%
Predicted outcome
Marseille
Probability
44.6%
Model confidence
44.6%
Marseille has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 13 · avg 1.20/2.60
GF 4 · GA 12 · avg 0.80/2.40