Estac Troyesvs
Lens
COMPLETEDFrance · Ligue 1 · 10/17/2026, 6:45:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Lens · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Estac Troyes 1-3 Lens
Original prediction
Lens
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 00:23 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 3.88 | 24.5% | 23.8% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.81 | 24.9% | 23.1% | -1.8 pts |
| Away | 1.87 | 50.6% | 53.1% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.87 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.5 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.1–210%
- 3.0–29%
Predicted outcome
Lens
Probability
53.1%
Model confidence
53.1%
Lens has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
Estac TroyesLDLLL
GF 4 · GA 14 · avg 0.80/2.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
LensLWWLD
GF 7 · GA 7 · avg 1.40/1.40
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Estac TroyesLens
22.2Attack61.1
27.8Defence44.4
22.2Form38.9
28.2Power49.0
1.16xG2.06