Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Espanyol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (12%), 2-1 (9%), 1-2 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Espanyol 1-1 Sevilla
Original prediction
Espanyol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 28 August 2026 at 00:02 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.29 | 41.5% | 38.9% | -2.6 pts |
| Draw | 3.16 | 30.1% | 27.5% | -2.6 pts |
| Away | 3.34 | 28.5% | 33.7% | 5.2 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.16 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.6 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–112%
- 2.2–19%
- 3.1–28%
Predicted outcome
Espanyol
Probability
38.9%
Model confidence
38.9%
Espanyol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EspanyolLLWLD
GF 9 · GA 10 · avg 1.80/2.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 5/5
SevillaLWWLW
GF 8 · GA 7 · avg 1.60/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EspanyolSevilla
55.6Attack66.7
55.6Defence44.4
33.3Form66.7
47.3Power61.0
1.53xG1.45