Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Espanyol · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-0 (10%), 2-1 (10%), 1-1 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Espanyol 1-3 Elche
Original prediction
Espanyol
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.83 | 52.2% | 58.2% | 6.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.59 | 26.6% | 22.3% | -4.3 pts |
| Away | 4.51 | 21.2% | 19.5% | -1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
6.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–010%
- 2.2–110%
- 3.1–110%
Predicted outcome
Espanyol
Probability
58.2%
Model confidence
58.2%
Espanyol has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EspanyolLWDLL
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
BTTS 4/5O2.5 3/5
ElcheLDLLL
GF 7 · GA 15 · avg 1.40/3.00
BTTS 4/5O2.5 4/5
EspanyolElche
50.0Attack44.4
61.1Defence11.1
38.9Form11.1
50.1Power24.9
2.27xG1.00