Espanyolvs
Atletico Madrid
COMPLETEDSpain · La Liga · 10/17/2026, 12:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Atletico Madrid · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%), 1-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Espanyol 0-1 Atletico Madrid
Original prediction
Atletico Madrid
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 17 September 2026 at 07:52 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 4.76 | 20.0% | 20.2% | 0.2 pts |
| Draw | 3.92 | 24.3% | 22.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Away | 1.71 | 55.7% | 57.4% | 1.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.71 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
1.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–111%
- 2.0–210%
- 3.1–210%
Predicted outcome
Atletico Madrid
Probability
57.4%
Model confidence
57.4%
Atletico Madrid has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 6 · GA 7 · avg 1.20/1.40
GF 13 · GA 2 · avg 2.60/0.40