Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ESMTK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 2-1 (9%), 1-1 (8%), 2-2 (7%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ESMTK 2-0 Vasas II
Original prediction
ESMTK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:26 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.63 | 55.4% | 48.7% | -6.7 pts |
| Draw | 3.85 | 23.5% | 24.3% | 0.8 pts |
| Away | 4.29 | 21.1% | 27.0% | 5.9 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.63 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-6.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.2–19%
- 2.1–18%
- 3.2–27%
Predicted outcome
ESMTK
Probability
48.7%
Model confidence
48.7%
ESMTK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ESMTKDWWWL
GF 13 · GA 5 · avg 2.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 5/5
Vasas IIWLWLD
GF 11 · GA 8 · avg 2.20/1.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 4/5
ESMTKVasas II
77.8Attack66.7
55.6Defence50.0
61.1Form44.4
64.7Power53.2
2.34xG1.56