Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ESMTK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5 · 1-1
ESMTK are 3W-1D-1L in their last 5 (DLWWW), averaging 2.80 scored and 1.40 conceded, while Pénzügyőr are 1W-0D-1L in their last 2 (WL), averaging 1.50 scored and 0.50 conceded. Both teams scored in 3 of those 7 games and 6 passed 2.5 goals, and ESMTK hold a 7.5-point power-rating edge (51.1 v 43.7). Goalvio's score-distribution model makes 1-1 the most likely exact scoreline at 41.9% in the NB III - Southeast, while ESMTK holds the strongest overall chance at 42% on the aggregated 1X2 probabilities, with a 60% BTTS chance and 58% for over 2.5 goals.
Predicted outcome
ESMTK
Probability
41.9%
Model confidence
41.9%
ESMTK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 14 · GA 7 · avg 2.80/1.40
GF 3 · GA 1 · avg 1.50/0.50