Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ESMTK · BTTS Yes · Over 2.5
Most likely scores: 3-1 (9%), 3-0 (9%), 2-1 (8%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ESMTK 6-0 Dabas
Original prediction
ESMTK
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 13 September 2026 at 00:00 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.19 | 75.3% | 74.6% | -0.7 pts |
| Draw | 5.69 | 15.8% | 14.5% | -1.2 pts |
| Away | 10.04 | 8.9% | 10.9% | 2.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.19 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-0.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.3–19%
- 2.3–09%
- 3.2–18%
Predicted outcome
ESMTK
Probability
74.6%
Model confidence
74.6%
ESMTK has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ESMTKDWWDW
GF 16 · GA 5 · avg 3.20/1.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
DabasLLLLD
GF 5 · GA 13 · avg 1.00/2.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 4/5
ESMTKDabas
70.8Attack50.0
62.5Defence25.0
62.5Form41.7
65.5Power41.1
3.31xG1.07