Esenler Eroksporvs
Fatih Karagümrük
COMPLETEDTurkey · 1. Lig · 9/19/2026, 5:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Esenler Erokspor · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (13%), 0-1 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Esenler Erokspor 0-2 Fatih Karagümrük
Original prediction
Esenler Erokspor
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 4 September 2026 at 17:44 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.98 | 45.9% | 36.9% | -9.0 pts |
| Draw | 3.36 | 27.0% | 28.0% | 1.0 pts |
| Away | 3.35 | 27.1% | 35.1% | 8.0 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-9.0 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–013%
- 3.0–112%
Predicted outcome
Esenler Erokspor
Probability
36.9%
Model confidence
36.9%
Esenler Erokspor has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 3 · GA 7 · avg 0.60/1.40
GF 8 · GA 8 · avg 1.60/1.60