Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Esbjerg · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (10%), 2-1 (9%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Esbjerg 2-2 HB Koge
Original prediction
Esbjerg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 29 August 2026 at 00:04 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.91 | 48.4% | 44.3% | -4.1 pts |
| Draw | 3.67 | 25.2% | 26.8% | 1.6 pts |
| Away | 3.50 | 26.4% | 28.8% | 2.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.67 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.1–010%
- 3.2–19%
Predicted outcome
Esbjerg
Probability
44.3%
Model confidence
44.3%
Esbjerg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EsbjergLLWLL
GF 8 · GA 10 · avg 1.60/2.00
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
HB KogeDDDLL
GF 4 · GA 8 · avg 0.80/1.60
BTTS 3/5O2.5 2/5
EsbjergHB Koge
38.1Attack19.0
33.3Defence38.1
19.0Form14.3
33.5Power27.7
1.56xG1.10