Esbjergvs
FC Fredericia
COMPLETEDDenmark · 1. Division · 10/24/2026, 11:30:00 AM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
FC Fredericia · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 0-2 (15%), 0-1 (13%), 0-3 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Esbjerg 2-1 FC Fredericia
Original prediction
FC Fredericia
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 5 October 2026 at 05:17 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.40-2.00| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 5.05 | 18.2% | 15.4% | -2.8 pts |
| Draw | 4.44 | 20.7% | 20.8% | 0.1 pts |
| Away | 1.50 | 61.1% | 63.9% | 2.7 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
2.7 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.0–215%
- 2.0–113%
- 3.0–310%
Predicted outcome
FC Fredericia
Probability
63.9%
Model confidence
63.9%
FC Fredericia has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
GF 10 · GA 8 · avg 2.00/1.60
GF 8 · GA 2 · avg 1.60/0.40