Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Aalborg · BTTS Yes · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (11%), 0-2 (10%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
Esbjerg 3-3 Aalborg
Original prediction
Aalborg
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 20 September 2026 at 06:32 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.95 | 31.3% | 26.8% | -4.4 pts |
| Draw | 3.57 | 25.8% | 26.1% | 0.3 pts |
| Away | 2.14 | 43.0% | 47.1% | 4.1 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw 2.57 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
4.1 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–113%
- 2.0–111%
- 3.0–210%
Predicted outcome
Aalborg
Probability
47.1%
Model confidence
47.1%
Aalborg has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
EsbjergLWDLL
GF 7 · GA 8 · avg 1.40/1.60
BTTS 1/5O2.5 3/5
AalborgWDDWD
GF 7 · GA 4 · avg 1.40/0.80
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
EsbjergAalborg
37.0Attack40.7
29.6Defence59.3
18.5Form48.1
31.8Power51.6
0.96xG1.66