ES Zarzisvs
US Monastirienne
COMPLETEDTunisia · Ligue 1 · 9/16/2026, 3:00:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
Draw · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Most likely scores: 1-1 (15%), 0-0 (15%), 1-0 (12%). Each percentage is the probability of that exact score; the remaining probability belongs to other outcomes.
Prediction record
Final result
ES Zarzis 1-2 US Monastirienne
Original prediction
Draw
Outcome
Incorrect
Prediction record created 27 August 2026 at 00:20 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 2.00-3.50| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.34 | 38.3% | 36.3% | -1.9 pts |
| Draw | 2.62 | 34.2% | 31.3% | -2.9 pts |
| Away | 3.25 | 27.6% | 32.4% | 4.8 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 -1.00 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-2.9 pts
Most Likely Scores
- 1.1–115%
- 2.0–015%
- 3.1–012%
Predicted outcome
Draw
Probability
31.3%
Model confidence
36.3%
Draw has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ES ZarzisLWWWW
GF 8 · GA 3 · avg 1.60/0.60
BTTS 2/5O2.5 2/5
US MonastirienneDWDWL
GF 8 · GA 5 · avg 1.60/1.00
BTTS 2/5O2.5 3/5
ES ZarzisUS Monastirienne
33.3Attack55.6
66.7Defence55.6
50.0Form55.6
53.0Power59.1
1.03xG0.98