ES Tunisvs
Olympique Béja
COMPLETEDTunisia · Ligue 1 · 10/10/2026, 1:30:00 PM
Unified score-distribution model
Prediction markets
ES Tunis · BTTS No · Under 2.5
Projected score: ES Tunis 1-0 Olympique Béja, with an exact score probability of 15%.
Prediction record
Final result
ES Tunis 3-1 Olympique Béja
Original prediction
ES Tunis
Outcome
Correct
Prediction record created 14 September 2026 at 03:42 UTC. Recorded before kickoff. Model v5.5-balanced-draw-selection.
Value and market comparison
Odds bucket: 1.01-1.20| Market | Odds | Implied probability | Model probability | Difference |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Home | 1.13 | 80.6% | 55.7% | -25.0 pts |
| Draw | 6.35 | 14.3% | 24.8% | 10.5 pts |
| Away | 17.88 | 5.1% | 19.6% | 14.5 pts |
Historical EV
1X2 0.13 · Draw -1.00 · BTTS - · Over 2.5 -
Value score
-24.9 pts
Projected Score
ES Tunis 1–0 Olympique Béja
Exact score probability: 15%
Predicted outcome
ES Tunis
Probability
55.7%
Model confidence
55.7%
ES Tunis has the highest 1X2 probability aggregated from the score distribution.
Last 5 games
ES TunisWWLWW
GF 8 · GA 6 · avg 1.60/1.20
BTTS 3/5O2.5 3/5
Olympique BéjaDDLLD
GF 4 · GA 6 · avg 0.80/1.20
BTTS 4/5O2.5 1/5
ES TunisOlympique Béja
58.3Attack25.0
50.0Defence58.3
75.0Form16.7
64.5Power36.5
1.37xG0.75